Breeding Watch, June 11

Posted on by DerbyMateo

There are Grade 1 winners and then there are classic winners and Tonalist’s gritty victory in the Belmont Stakes filled out the last remaining hole in Tapit’s spectacular resume.

Tonalist is the first classic winner and 14th Grade 1 winner from six crops for Tapit, who already holds a nearly $2.7 million lead on the 2014 North American general sires list. The Gainesway Farm stallion now has three Grade 1 winners to his credit this season, including another 3-year-old colt in Florida Derby hero Constitution. Tonalist is one of only five starters by Tapit out of daughters of Pleasant Colony and he’s the first Grade 1 winner produced by the larger A.P. Indy-Pleasant Colony cross.

Classic winners A.P. Indy and Pleasant Colony both stood atLane’s End Farm, which is also home to North America’s current leading sire of stakes winners, City Zip. The son of Carson City has been on quite a roll with four stakes winners since Memorial Day.

That afternoon his 3-year-old daughter Red Velvet won her stakes debut in the $100,000 Jersey Girl Stakes at Belmont Park. She’s out of a mare by Honour and Glory who, like City Zip’s dam, is by Relaunch. That makes her the eighth black-type winner (from 197 starters or 2.2%) that show a double of Relaunch within four generations.

Another City Zip 3-year-old filly, City by the Bay, earned her second stakes victory in the June 1 Seattle Handicap at Emerald Downs to stay unbeaten in three starts. Out of a mare by Glitterman, City by the Bay is inbred to Relaunch’s sire In Reality at 4×4.

Just five days later Palace, who is out of a mare by End Sweep, graduated to the Grade 2 level with a score in the True North Stakes at Belmont. The following afternoon, Sweet Emma Rose, who is out of a daughter of Deputy Minister, earned her first stakes victory in the Crank It Up Stakes at Monmouth Park. Those victories give City Zip 12 stakes winners for the year, three more than Tapit and Medaglia d’Oro.

The nine 2014 stakes winners by Medaglia d’Oro include Coffee Clique, winner of the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile and the Just A Game Stakes (G1) on the Belmont Stakes undercard. The four-year-old filly is the Darley America stallion’s second new Grade 1 winner of the season after Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap victory by the gelding Lochte. He now has a total of 11 Grade 1 winners on his ledger. Out of mare by the Nijinsky II stallion Royal Academy, it’s surprising to note that Coffee Clique is the only stakes winner by Medaglia d’Oro out of a Nijinsky II-line mare to date.

Of the Medaglia d’Oro Grade 1 winners only four are males, but one of them, Warrior’s Reward, is the early headliner among the 2014 first-crop sires. TheSpendthrift Farm stallion was represented by a trio of sparkling debut winners May 30.

Most impressive of all was Unbridled Reward, who is out of Unbridled Appeal, by Unbridled. She rolled to a 7 3/4 length win going 4 1/2 furlongs on the main track at Churchill Downs. A $330,000 purchase by owner John Oxley at the OBS March sale of selected 2-year-olds in training, Unbridled Reward is the most expensive juvenile by Warrior’s Reward.

About an hour earlier Warrior’s Reward’s first winner bounded down the stretch as Liatris, who is out of Miss Brickyard, by A.P. Indy, scored a 3 3/4-length debut victory over males in a 5-furlong maiden special on the dirt.

Another filly, Strawberry Baby, who is out of Kendall Hill, by Theatrical, completed the hat trick for her sire later that evening at Lone Star Park. She won by 2 3/4 lengths in a 5-furlong dash on the main oval.

That makes three starters and three winners by a combined 14 1/4 lengths out of mares by Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer and Bold Ruler/Seattle Slew-line mares. Not a bad start at all for the first major son of Medaglia d’Oro with runners on the track.

The Relaunch-A.P. Indy cross has been sneaky good in recent years and two more stakes winners bred on this cross have emerged in late May and early June.

Tiz’naz earned his initial stakes victory in the Grover ‘Buddy’ Delp Memorial May 28 at Delaware Park. The 3-year-old colt is by the Spendthrift Farm Tiznow stallion Tiz Wonderful out of a mare by Pulpit, a son of A. P. Indy, who is the dam sire of Tiz Wonderful’s 2014 Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed Scherzinger.

Tiznow’s son Norumbega got up in the final strides to add the Grade 2 Brooklyn Invitational Stakes trophy to owner Stuart Janney’s crowded trophy case. He’s the third stakes winner from 15 starters on the Tiznow-A.P. Indy cross and Grade 1 winner Morning Line is among the others. Two more Relaunch sons, Honour and Glory and Tiznow’s sire, Cee’s Tizzy, have also sired graded winners out of A.P. Indy-line mares.

(originally published on http://www.thisishorseracing.com)

Horse of the Week: Palace Malice

Posted on by DerbyMateo

Last Saturday, the New York Racing Association hit a home run with it’s new Belmont Stakes Day lineup (customer service issues aside). While California Chrome failed to give the fans what they most wanted, the five other Grade 1 races on the card showcased some of the very best runners in North America, including last year’s Belmont Stakes (G1) hero Palace Malice.

The Dogwood Stables runner continued his impressive 2014 campaign, overcoming high weight and a worrisome inside post to win the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) over last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Goldencents. For many years the ‘Met Mile’ anchored the Memorial Day program in New York but was moved and enriched to $1.25 million this year at the behest of new Senior VP of Racing Martin Panza.

Not surprisingly, it’s been the rare thoroughbred who can win a mile and one half Spring Classic and this country’s most historic one mile fixture. The last to do it was 1982 Horse of the Year Conquistador Cielo who took the Met Mile and the Belmont Stakes within five days for the incomparable trainer Woody Stephens. Prior to that it was some of the greats of the ‘50’s and ‘60’s who pulled off the double – Gallant Man (1957 Belmont, 1958 Met Mile), Sword Dancer (both races in 1959) and Arts and Letters (both races in 1969). All three of those greats are enshrined in the National Racing Museum and Hall of Fame in Saratoga Springs.

With four graded stakes wins already this season, Palace Malice is the frontrunner to at least join Conquistador Cielo in the Horse of the Year ranks. He’s also won the one mile Gulfstream Park Handicap (G2), the nine furlong New Orlean’s Handicap (G2) and the one mile Westchester Stakes (G3) in a virtual walkover with just three outmanned rivals left in his wake. And you can bet the major Kentucky stallion farms are lining up to launch the bay colt’s second career next breeding season

Palace Malice is a member of the first crop sired by 2007 and 2008 Horse of the Year Curlin, a son of Smart Strike. As Curlin’s only graded stakes winner so far, he’s almost single-handedly kept his sire on the map. This year should be telling for Curlin though, as he does have a pair of Grade 1-placed three-year-olds in his second crop, including Preakness Stakes (G1) runnerup Ride on Curlin. Palace Malice is out of a mare by the Nureyev grandson Royal Anthem and he’s among the very good runners bred on the Smart Strike/Nureyev cross. This group includes 2014 Grade 2 winner Utley and dual champion English Channel.

The prestigious Whitney Handicap (G1) at Saratoga Racecourse on August 2 is the next logical spot for Palace Malice and trainer Todd Pletcher has already indicated that should be his star colt’s next start. Another stylish score there will keep him in the catbird’s seat for year-end honors and, if he keeps on winning after that, there may well be a plaque with his name on it across Union Avenue in the Hall of Fame later on.

(originally published on http://www.myfantasystable.com)

On Racing: Tales of Belmont Stakes Agony (Part 2)

Posted on by DerbyMateo

In my 30 years as a horseracing fan I’ve seen 10 horses win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes only to fall short in the Belmont Stakes. Sometimes I was there in the stands, sometimes I was a TV viewer. Last week I recounted my experiences watching the first five failures. This week, the rest of the story…

2002 – War Emblem – I watched this one on television from my apartment in Lexington, Kentucky. The race was over as soon as the gates opened and War Emblem fell to his kneels. The speedy colt needed to be on or near the lead to have any chance and that chance vanished with the bad break. It was Wiseman’s Ferry (Wise Dan’s sire) who took the early initiative while jockey Victor Espinoza fought with a headstrong War Emblem and with other riders for a comfortable running position. He did rush up to be 2nd after a mile but never was there a point that he would be serious factor in the race. The Bob Baffert-trained colt crossed the wire in 8th well behind 70-1 chance Sarava, the longest shot ever to win the Test of Champions.

Espinoza gets another chance with California Chrome on June 7 but, because of that poor break in 2002, he’ll do so without previous experience in guiding a speed horse around the vast Belmont Park oval. It’s probably a small thing, but this type of exprerience likely cost really good horses like Spectacular Bid in 1979 and, as we’ll see, Smarty Jones in 2004.

2003 – Funny Cide I was at Belmont Park on that dreary, rainy Saturday as the spunky New York-bred with New York-based owners in the yellow school bus tried for immortality. The rub that year was that his main rival, Empire Maker, was probably a better horse. After toying with Funny Cide in the Wood Memorial, Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel later admitted to going easy on the royally-bred son of Unbridled leading up the the Kentucky Derby. Part of the reason was a minor foot issue that nagged Empire Maker, part of the reason was that Frankel wanted a colt as fresh as possible for a sweep of all three Classics. Funny Cide was at his best on Derby Day and kept Empire Maker and Frankel out of roses way. With his Triple Crown hopes dashed, Frankel skipped the Preakness to get Empire Maker 100% for the Belmont Stakes. Many blame the sloppy track for Funny Cide’s 3rd-place Belmont finish behind Empire Maker and eventual Travers S. winner Ten Most Wanted, but I side with the others that feel that the Triple Crown was lost in 2003 when Empire Maker fell short on the first Saturday in May.

2004 – Smarty Jones – If you want to know why the Belmont Stakes is no longer a BYOB event, watch the 2004 Belmont Stakes. A record crowd of over 120,000 people, including myself, crammed into Belmont Park that year hoping, expecting, the unbeaten Smarty Jones would be crowned a Triple Crown champion.

Smarty Jones was so impressive, first in the Kentucky Derby on a very sloppy track and then the Preakness Stakes on dry land. So much so that the first thing I did after Smarty Jones demolished the Preakness field was book a flight to New York. This would be the year. And it might have been had rider Stewart Elliot been more judicious with Smarty Jones’ speed. He parried early and often with Eddington and Rock Hard Ten before spurting away from those rivals at the top of the stretch. Birdstone looming, but not dangerously, right? Not Birdstone… Smarty was running his heart out but his legs began to slow by mid stretch. And Birdstone got closer. And closer and…

It’s an incredible thing to see and feel a large crowd go from absolute frenzy to complete silence but that’s exactly what happened when Birdstone nudged by Smarty Jones in those final agonizing yards. All of that excited energy of 120,000 people evaporated in an instant out of the Belmont Park balloon. We were all stunned, what was there to say? We just silently began to accept that we were robbed of the chance to bear witness to history yet again.

That was from my vantage point up on the third floor of the grandstand. I would later hear about boos and catcalls at the winner’s cirlce and the near riots and police action in the spacious backyard picnic area. And the next year we would all hear about the new alcohol policy at Belmont Park.

2008 – Big Brown – I was ready to riot after Big Brown’s failure in 2008. I again came to Belmont Park expecting to see a Triple Crown winner. This was no only because of Big Brown’s obvious talent but also because of paucity of talent evident in his competitors.

There was a lot of controversy swirling around the unbeaten colt’s primary owners IEAH Stable, who brought a slick (some said shady) Wall Street financier-type approach to thoroughbred ownership. And then there was controversial and boisterous trainer Richard Dutrow, a lightning rod who invited more media strikes as the Triple Crown progressed. IEAH is no more and  Dutrow is serving a 10 year suspension for numerous medication infractions. Oh, and there was the steroid thing. It came to light that Big Brown was given a steady diet of a steroid call Winstrol and it came further to light that this was not all together illegal in the thoroughbred racing game. That’s since changed in many states and Dutrow said he took Big Brown off of his regimen after the Preakness Stakes.

I was on a radio program the Thursday before the Belmont. As we talked about all these issues I remember saying something like ‘I think just seeing this horse do it, seeing him actually roll down that stretch and win it after all these years. That moment will be so incredible that the whole backstory will just go away.’

I believed it and kept tring to maintain faith even though there was something ‘off’ that Saturday at Belmont. It was insanely hot, 95 degrees with very high humidity. There was also some kind a water main break that knocked out service to good portion of the plant, including several restrooms. Hot, crowded and standing in line for the restroom all day is no way to spend a Belmont A few of my friends, veterans of scores of Belmont Days, said this was their last one.

Still, all Big Brown had to do was win and everything is better. Everyone is exuberant. Instead, the exact opposite happened. Big Brown was eased at the top of the stretch when rider Kent Desmormeaux felt all was lost. So now not only is everything not better, everything is decidedly worse. With the whole world watching and well up to speed on the owners and the trainer and steroids, the horse didn’t just lose, he stopped running! Everything was much worse and I slammed my program down to the concrete steps with a loud and disgusted ‘God Damnnn it!!!’ It’s still the maddest I’ve been after a horse race (well, after Mine That Bird’s Derby is pretty close).

2012 – I’ll Have Another – It’s easy to say now, but I had a feeling… I flew to New York early on Friday morning, June 8 and was settled into the Bay Shore home of long-time family friends for their annual Belmont Stakes weekend bash. It’s easy to say now but I had a feeling…I think I was even sipping on a margarita when I saw the news on the small kitchen TV. I had feeling… maybe that’s why it was so hard to believe when it actually came true. The past nine Triple Crown failures happened on the track. I’ll Have Another’s would fail to leave the barn. I was the first to see it, everyone else was chatting and making more margaritas. I stared at the TV for several more moments. I wasn’t sure I should say ‘Well, I had a feeling…’. Before I could say anything someone else noticed. “What?! I’ll Have Another scratched??!!”

Belmont Park was a museum to what could have been the following day. There were I’ll Have Another buttons everywhere and I’ll Have Another posters stacked on lonely tables. Then you’d see the posters on the floor scattered around like big, sad confetti. The only thing sadder were the poor souls trying to unload all of the I’ll Have Another t-shirts. I made the best of a bad situation by betting winner Union Rags (redemption for my Derby pick) and nailing the exacta and trifecta with Paynter running second and Atigun third. If you’re going to be disappointed for the 10th time it helps to have a margarita in your hand and a back up plan for the windows.

(originally published on http://www.myfantasystable.com

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On Racing: Tales of Belmont Stakes Agony (Part 1)

Posted on by DerbyMateo

I started following thoroughbred horse racing a little over 30 years. Across those three decades I’ve seen ten horses win both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. And ten times my soul was later crushed at some point during the Belmont Stakes. Is the 11th time the charm? Is California Chrome the one? I figured it couldn’t hurt to try to exorcise the demons of past Triple Crown heartbreak.

1987 – Alysheba This was my second time attending the Belmont Stakes and Alysheba was my first favorite horse. Out of money at my local Off Track-Betting Parlor before the 1987 Kentucky Derby, I cancelled my Dad’s ticket on the race and put the stolen money on Alysheba. He very nearly fell down during in the stretch run at Churchill when Bet Twice drifted into his path but he and Chris McCarron persevered to win me my first Kentucky Derby. Another gritty win over archrival Bet Twice in the Preakness set the stage for the son of Alydar to avenge his sire and capture the Triple Crown. Those were the days when New York didn’t allow the anti-bleeding medication Lasix and much was made of the fact that Alysheba would go without it for the mile and one half test. There wasn’t much drama that sunny June afternoon as Bet Twice spurted away rounding the far turn and was never challenged. Alysheba settled for fourth.

1989 – Sunday Silence I was there for this one too but have to admit some mixed emotions. This was racing’s last great East Coast/West Coast rivalry and, as a yankee, I was all about Easy Goer. Like most of the Easy Goer-ers I blamed his Derby loss to Santa Anita Derby winner Sunday Silence on the slick racetrack at Churchill Downs. After Sunday Silence out-gutted him in the Preakness by a nose I could say nothing and be nothing but heartbroken. Like two years before, the Belmont Stakes was over at the top of the stretch with Easy Goer operating like a Secretariat-like machine. He ran away from Sunday Silence by x lengths stopping the clock in 2:26, a time bettered only by Secretariat himself. Easy Goer may have been the last truly brilliant distance horse we’ve seen in North America. It was also NYRA race caller Marshal Cassidy’s last Belmont Stakes call and, like me, he didn’t try to hide his rooting interest screaming:  “It’s New York’s Eaasssy Goer, in front!”

1997 – Silver Charm I had skipped the 1995 and 1996 Belmont Stakes but had to come back with a big shot at witnessing history. Silver Charm proved to be an incredibly courageous and game animal with close victories over Captain Bodgit in the Kentucky Derby and again in the Preakness (with Free House and Touch Gold in close proximity too). If Touch Gold hadn’t stumbled badly at the start of the Baltimore race and then been shut off a few times maybe there would haven’t have been a Triple Crown on the line at all that year. But with Silver Charm you never knew. If Touch Gold had gotten through on the inside of the Pimlico stretch and come up alongside Silver Charm, Silver Charm likely would have battled back. Actually Chris McCarron did know and he kept Touch Gold to the far outside down the lane in the Belmont. He never let Gary Stevens and Silver Charm see him until it was too late. When Silver Charm passed me at about the 1/8th pole I thought he had the race won and it was hard to see if anyone actually did get by him from our angle up on the third floor. By the crowd reaction I assumed someone had beaten him but I sprinted up the stairs to the nearest TV to see what had actually happened. Silver Charm would not let Free House pass him but I watched in agony as Touch Gold surged by both from the far outside. Silver Charm, literally, never saw him coming.

1998 – Real Quiet I didn’t make the trip to New York for this one for some reason, instead, I was planted firmly on my couch in Louisville, Kentucky as Real Quiet ran for history. I had bet him in the Derby but was a little skeptical about his overall quality. The Derby was only his third lifetime win, afterall. But when Kent Desormeaux let him loose at the top of that long Belmont stretch and Real Quiet responded and bounded away. I lept up and thought “Holy @#$!@#, he’s going to do it!” It felt like he had already won. And then Victory Gallop, Gary Stevens up, appeared. And then he started getting closer. And then Real Quiet started staggering. And then they hit the wire together and Tom Durkin gave one of his greatest calls. “It’s too close to call! Was it Real Quiet!? Or was it Victory Gallop!? A picture is worth a thousand words. This one is worth five million dollars!” (At the time there was a $5 million bonus for whoever earned the Triple Crown). I couldn’t tell who won either but after watching the replays I was almost hoping that Victory Gallop had gotten his nose down first. After all that staggering and drifting by Real Quiet, there would be a claim of foul for sure if Real Quiet had crossed the wire first. How would you like to be the stewards with that much history in the balance? When the photo came back it showed Victory Gallop had won the 130th Belmont Stakes. Despite the bitter loss I got to feel what it was like to watch a Triple Crown winner. If only for a few fake seconds.

1999 – Charismatic I had an even harder time taking Charismatic seriously the following year. A former claimer he had exploded on the racing scene by taking the Lexington Stakes then the Derby and then Preakness. He was owned by racing’s first couple, the affable Robert & Beverly Lewis, who had been so gracious in 1997 with their Silver Charm (and Serena’s Song and so on). Charismatic ran his heart out trying to hold off Lemon Drop Kid and Vision and Verse down the stretch under Chris Antley. His try turned out to be more than his body could sustain. The lasting image of this Belmont Stakes was Chris Antley supporting the left front leg of Charismatic after the finish line, waiting for the vets to arrive on the scene. There’s perhaps no better image to represent the past decades of Triple Crown futility and frustration.

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Next week: Part 2

(originally published on www.myfantasystable.com)

Classics Contender Profile: Social Inclusion

Posted on by DerbyMateo

If you go strictly by speed figures, the fastest healthy three-year-old colt in North America wasn’t included in the Kentucky Derby field. With a 110 Beyer Speed Figure and a 4 on the Ragozin Sheets, the lightly-raced Social Inclusion missed a Derby berth by the bob of a head. Come Preakness time, however, he’ll break from starting stall #8.

Social Inclusion was a runaway winner of his debut on Feburary 22 at Gulfstream Park. That afternoon he went right to the lead from his rail position and rocketed to a 7 1/2-length score, covering six furlongs in an impressive 1:09.35. His next start was a mile an one-sixteenth Allowance heat in South Florida, designed as a first test of his distance capability. That race also happened to be the 2014 starting point for Derby favorite Honor Code, an impresive graded winner last year at two. The betting public made Honor Code the odds-on favorite but Social Inclusion made everyone take notice with another dominant performace. He ran away from Honor Code by over 10 lengths, earning the aforementioned speed figures.

The Wood Memorial was up next for the speedy colt and another big effort was needed to secure enough points to make the Churchill Downs starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Under jockey Luis Contreras, Social Inclusion ceded the early lead to Schivarelli in the Wood but was right at that one’s throatlatch after a quarter mile. He was traveling easily on the outside down the backstretch and entering the home stretch the colt looked well in command. It wasn’t until the 3/16ths pole that he appeared a little weary and from there he weakened more noticably. Wicked Strong was running best late and surged by him in the final yards from the far outside. The previously unbeaten Samraat was also along to grab second place, and crucial Derby points from Social Inclusion.

Without those points, Social Inclusion stayed in South Florida and was to prep for the Preakness Stakes in the Sir Bear Stakes. A minor foot bruise kept him out of that event but he appears to have recovered fully and has worked spectacuarly since.

The question for Social Inclusion going into Saturday’s Preakness Stakes is his ability to handle a Classic distance. His Wood Memorial left plenty of doubts, but supporters can point to the fact that it was only his third career start. His pedigree is also mixed bag. His sire, Pioneerof the Nile, ran second in the Kentucky Derby and is the the son of a Belmont Stakes winner (Empire Maker) and grandson of a Kentucky Derby winner (Unbridled). His dam, however, the graded-placed Saint Bernadette, was a two-time winner, both at sprint distances.

Social Inclusion’s gaudy speed figures and workouts will certainly attract a lot of wagering dollars. In fact, he’s the second choice on the morning line at 5-1. Based on his running style his supporters will most likely have something to root for at the top of the stretch. That’s when it will get interesting for Social Inclusion.

(originally published on www.myfantasystable.com)

Derby is a Changin’

Posted on by DerbyMateo

I experienced of couple of moments this spring when I watched everything change. The first was at the Coachella music festivalin early April, the second at Churchill Downs on opening night, April 26.

At Churchill, I was sitting in a section of brand new grandstand at the top of the stretch as the sun began to set. The enormous new 4D ‘Big Board’ television on the backstretch had just been unveiled (watch here). From my vantage, I could see the whole infield, now lined with light poles and the newish Jockey Club suites towered above my right shoulder. Over the past decade the Churchill Downs property has undergone a steady metamorphosis (including a new Clubhouse section) and I had seen the changes at every stage. But once the virtual red curtain opened on that ridiculously big and crystal-clear new TV, that’s when it all clicked. Almost like watching a favorite video online that gets temporarily stuck and then fast forwards, my whole twenty-plus history at the storied track flashed before me. In that instant, I watched the Churchill Downs of the future be born.

Earlier in the month at Coachella, I stood in a somewhat sparse crowd of folks swaying to and fro as Arcade Fire closed out the festival on the main stage. I was wondering where the rest of the crowd was as just a few hours earlier a DJ named Calvin Harris had that same field packed with kids frantically dancing around. ‘Wow,’ I thought to myself “Arcade Fire (and bands like them) are over with the next generation.’

It’s not like these changes actually happened in the moments when they finally hit home to me. I never saw the ‘decadent and depraved’ Derby that Hunter S. Thompson wrote about in the 1970’s, but I used to see more than a few fights in the infield. In the ’90’s I used to see a bunch of girls throughout Derby Day get on guys shoulders and, after loud pleadings from the other men in the crowd, pull up or push down their shirts. I can’t remember the last time I saw a boob in the Kentucky Derby infield, much less two. That’s not to say that I condone brawling or boob-baring, but these actions were born of an attitude of reckless freedom and drunken abandon that isn’t acceptable in the real world. Derby became an escape from daily conformity for me and was exactly what I needed in my life in the early 1990’s. At the time Kentucky Derby was my only source.

Nowadays I have Derby and whatever music fests I attend. I haven’t seen many fights or much nudity at music festivals over the past decade but the freedom and happiness vibe and crowd energy is certainly there in spades. I guess I have to thank Derby for opening the door to this world. I’m not only accustomed to large crowds but crave and feed off the energy of tens of thousands of people who have left the outside world behind for a few hours or days of uninhibited fun.

Like I said, it’s been awhile since the Derby infield has been truly depraved but this year it seemed its gentrification became complete. I spent my 23rd Derby in the Churchill Downs infield last Saturday and can’t recall an infield scene so lacking in crazed energy. The giant frat party on the third turn was nowhere to be found. You could actually walk on the grass in that area, where in the past it was a major effort just to take a few steps. Only a year before, in the pouring rain, a throng danced at a nearby DJ stage and mud wrestled and acted like proper infielders. It was a shock to see the 2014 attendance figure announced as the second-hightest in Derby history. The infield certainly didn’t pull it’s weight. Only the middle of the infield, with the best view of the new TV seemed even remotely crowded this year.

Maybe, hopefully, 2014 is an anomaly. Maybe I just happened to be in the wrong parts of the infield at the wrong times. Or maybe this was the year that Derby really did change. Maybe that moment on opening night hit home because you can’t have the same Derby experience in a physical environment that has changed so radically.

Time will tell, just like time will tell if there will more than a handful of bands that play actual instruments at music festivals in 10 years time. I’ll let you know how it turns out.

Classics Contender Profile: Danza

Posted on by DerbyMateo

The cleverly-named Danza burst into Triple Crown contention by bossing around a quality field in the Arkansas Derby  April 12. It was only his fourth career start and his very first around two turns, leaving MyFantasyStable.com players to wonder if he’s a one-hit wonder or if he has lasting star power.

The Todd Pletcher-trained colt couldn’t have had an easier trip in the Oaklawn Park fixture. He sat fourth while along the inside for much of the race and did not have to deviate course when the real running began. Jockey Joe Bravo hustled Danza up the rail turning for home and he drew off down the lane leaving Ride on Curlin, pace-setter Bayern and the graded winner Tapiture to fight it out for the minor awards.

Despite the ease of Danza’s journey, his race earned a very good speed figure from both the Beyer folks and the Ragozin Sheets makers, who incorporate ground loss into their numbers. Danza’s 102 Beyer and 6 on The Sheets (lower the better on those) puts him right there with the remaining Derby contenders and any further improvement makes him a very serious player.

In addition, we just don’t know how good this horse is. He ran well in his stakes debut last summer, closing stoutly to gain third in the Saratoga Special going 6 1/2 furlongs before a knee issue sent him to the sidelines. His first race of this season was a closing fourth-place effort in a 7 furlong sprint over a notoriously speed favoring Gulfstream Park strip on March 1.

Danza’s pedigree provides some clues to his potential at Classic distances. His sire, Street Boss was at his best around one turn and on synthetic surfaces, winning a pair of Grade 1 sprints in California during the polytrack era (tha’s now coming to a close). Street Boss hasn’t set the world on fire as a sire but Danza is his second Grade 1 winner from his first two crops. His first, Capo Bastone, won last year’s 7 furlong King’s Bishop S. (G1) after flirting with the Classics in the spring. However, the rest of Danza’s pedigree has some Classic influences. His paternal grandsire, Street Cry, won the 10-furlong Dubai World Cup and has sired the likes of 2007 Kentucky Derby hero Street Sense and the incomparable Zenyatta (Breeders’ Cup Classic, etc. etc.). Danza’s second dam is by Tank’s Prospect, winner of the 1985 Preakness Stakes and his half-bother brother, Midnight Harbor, won the 12-furlong Tokyo City H. (G3) earlier this year.

A certain former Defense Secretary is famous for pontificating on ‘knowns’ and ‘unknows’ stating in part: “We also know there are known unknowns…”. He could very well be talking about Danza. We know we have a promising Grade 1 winner before us, but just how good he really is remains, well, uknown.

Classics Contender Profile: Wicked Strong

Posted on by DerbyMateo

Things can change quickly on the Triple Crown trail. Wicked Strong is a case in point. No better than fourth in his first two starts of 2014, he catapulted to the top of many Kentucky Derby lists with his emphatic score in the Wood Memorial (G1) on April 5.

Wicked Strong was actually the second choice in the January 25 Holy Bull Stakes (G2) won by Cairo Prince. Bettors and pundits alike had good reason to fancy the Centennial Farms-owned colt after his promising third in the Remsen Stakes (G2) to close out his juvenile campaign. In that event, he was beaten less than a length by both Honor Code and Cairo Prince and was a couple lengths clear of eventual Risen Star Stakes (G3) winner Intense Holiday.

After flopping at 4-1 in the Holy Bull (finishing 9th), Wicked Strong could do no better than fourth in an ultra-competitive Gulfstream Park Allowance heat a month later. That race was won by eventual Florida Derby champion Constitution. Bettors who reasoned that Wicked Strong just didn’t like the Gulfstream Park surface were handsomely rewarded in the Wood with a 9-1 payout. It’s been well-documented that the Gulfstream surface has tended to favor speed horses this winter and Wicked Strong’s strength is to come from off the pace. His late move has certainly been more effective in New York. In the Wood he sat off a contended early scrum, made an outside move turning for home and wore down a pair of previously unbeaten colts in Samraat and Social Inclusion. He had a similar trip in the Remsen but didn’t quite get there. To this observer, Wicked Strong seems to lack any kind of brilliant acceleration. Instead, he just keeps running while other horses are getting tired. 

Wicked Strong is a son of 2007 Kentucky Derby runner-up Hard Spun, who is having a resurgent 2014 as a stallion. He’s also the sire of recent Grade 1 winner Hard Not To Like and 2014 Grade 3 winner Reload. Hard Spun is standing the 2014 season at Darley’s outpost in Japan and will no doubt be welcomed back by American breeders next season. Wicked’s Strong’s dam is by 1999 Kentucky Derby & Preakness hero Charismatic and she’s a sister to a trio of stakes winners, all of them on turf or all weather surfaces. 

Should Wicked Strong find the winner’s cirlce in the Derby, Preakness or Belmont Stakes, he would be the second Classic winner for the Centennial Farm racing partnership. They first struck Classic gold in 1993 when Julie Krone guided Colonial Affair home in the Belmont. Wicked Strong’s running style and his form outside of Gulfstream Park make him a serious Classics contender in 2014. The others better keep running late if they want to hold this colt off.

Classics Contender Profile: Constitution

Posted on by DerbyMateo

This year’s Florida Derby winner Constitution has quite a bit of history going against him, at least as far as his chances of winning the Kentucky Derby are concerned. The Run for the Roses will be only his fourth career start and he didn’t make his racing debut until January 11, forgoing any kind of juvenile campaign. This means the ‘Greco-Roman mythology clause’ gets invoked by racing pundits as (all together now) the equine Apollo is the only horse to capture the Derby without having raced at two. And that happened in the 19th century, 1882 to be exact (that was the 8th Kentucky Derby).

But Constitution might just have the future on his side. American Thoroughbreds, young and old, are making fewer and fewer starts, dulling the experience disadvantage a horse like Constitition faces in relation to his competition.

There have also been some near-misses in the recent past from horses that didn’t start at two. Curlin made his first start on February 3, 2007 and ran a good third three months later in the Derby behind Street Sense and Hard Spun. Two weeks after that he was standing in the Preakness winner’s circle with a garland of black-eyed susans draped over his withers. Bodemeister sure looked like the Derby winner at the 3/16 pole on a sunny Derby Day, 2012 before I’ll Have Another got by him in the final yards. Bodemeister made his afternoon debut on January 16 of that year. 

Constitution’s early racing profile actually closely mirrors that of Big Brown, winner of the 2008 Kentucky Derby. That son of Boundary also won the Florida Derby in his stakes debut and in his third career start. The only difference is that he broke his Maiden the previous September at Saratoga as a juvenile.

Perhaps form cycle is the best tangible reason why it’s so difficult for a horse unraced by New Year’s Day to capture the Kentucky Derby. We all know it takes a horse ‘peaking at he right time’ to wear the roses and it’s difficult for a horse to advance enough in four months to earn his way into the Derby field without expending his best effort along the way.

Besides being by the world’s hottest sire Tapit, Constitution is out of a blacktype-placed daughter of Distorted Humor, another top six-figure American stallion Distorted Humor. That WinStar Farm stallion is the sire of 2003 Kentucky Derby hero Funny Cide and grandsire of I’ll Have Another (by Flower Alley). Tapit’s run the past few years has been nothing short of sensational. He’s already has seven stakes winners to his credit in 2014 (six graded), including Kentucky Oaks favorite Tapiture and Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Ring Weekend. He’s pretty much the most prolific sire on these shores since Storm Cat dominated in the 1990’s.

The pundits once said a Kentucky Derby winner had to be weighted within 10 pounds of the highweight on the Experimental Free Handicap, indicating good stakes form at two. That was until Winning Colors went wire-to-wire in the 1988 Derby. Then the pundits said that no horse with a ‘Doasge Index’ over 4.00 (indicating a distance pedigree) could wear the roses until Strike the Gold and Real Quiet stormed home first in 1991 and 1998. Then the pundits said no horse with only four starts could win the Derby until Big Brown proved them wrong from post 20 in 2008. The last of the ‘Derby rules’ still standing is ‘Apollo, 1882’. Until….