This year’s Florida Derby winner Constitution has quite a bit of history going against him, at least as far as his chances of winning the Kentucky Derby are concerned. The Run for the Roses will be only his fourth career start and he didn’t make his racing debut until January 11, forgoing any kind of juvenile campaign. This means the ‘Greco-Roman mythology clause’ gets invoked by racing pundits as (all together now) the equine Apollo is the only horse to capture the Derby without having raced at two. And that happened in the 19th century, 1882 to be exact (that was the 8th Kentucky Derby).
But Constitution might just have the future on his side. American Thoroughbreds, young and old, are making fewer and fewer starts, dulling the experience disadvantage a horse like Constitition faces in relation to his competition.
There have also been some near-misses in the recent past from horses that didn’t start at two. Curlin made his first start on February 3, 2007 and ran a good third three months later in the Derby behind Street Sense and Hard Spun. Two weeks after that he was standing in the Preakness winner’s circle with a garland of black-eyed susans draped over his withers. Bodemeister sure looked like the Derby winner at the 3/16 pole on a sunny Derby Day, 2012 before I’ll Have Another got by him in the final yards. Bodemeister made his afternoon debut on January 16 of that year.
Constitution’s early racing profile actually closely mirrors that of Big Brown, winner of the 2008 Kentucky Derby. That son of Boundary also won the Florida Derby in his stakes debut and in his third career start. The only difference is that he broke his Maiden the previous September at Saratoga as a juvenile.
Perhaps form cycle is the best tangible reason why it’s so difficult for a horse unraced by New Year’s Day to capture the Kentucky Derby. We all know it takes a horse ‘peaking at he right time’ to wear the roses and it’s difficult for a horse to advance enough in four months to earn his way into the Derby field without expending his best effort along the way.
Besides being by the world’s hottest sire Tapit, Constitution is out of a blacktype-placed daughter of Distorted Humor, another top six-figure American stallion Distorted Humor. That WinStar Farm stallion is the sire of 2003 Kentucky Derby hero Funny Cide and grandsire of I’ll Have Another (by Flower Alley). Tapit’s run the past few years has been nothing short of sensational. He’s already has seven stakes winners to his credit in 2014 (six graded), including Kentucky Oaks favorite Tapiture and Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Ring Weekend. He’s pretty much the most prolific sire on these shores since Storm Cat dominated in the 1990’s.
The pundits once said a Kentucky Derby winner had to be weighted within 10 pounds of the highweight on the Experimental Free Handicap, indicating good stakes form at two. That was until Winning Colors went wire-to-wire in the 1988 Derby. Then the pundits said that no horse with a ‘Doasge Index’ over 4.00 (indicating a distance pedigree) could wear the roses until Strike the Gold and Real Quiet stormed home first in 1991 and 1998. Then the pundits said no horse with only four starts could win the Derby until Big Brown proved them wrong from post 20 in 2008. The last of the ‘Derby rules’ still standing is ‘Apollo, 1882’. Until….
Matt O'Neil Consulting 